MLB Projection Engine 2026 Season

See the edge
before the market does.

ML-powered projection engine that sees 800+ features you don't. Across every market, every day.

Founding member access · No spam

Every edge. Every game. One dashboard.

app.obsidic.com

The sharps already have their model.

Now you have yours.

How it works.

800+ Features Per At-Bat

Every projection is built on deep contextual data; platoon splits, pitch mix tendencies, velocity trends, park dimensions, bullpen fatigue, umpire strike zones, and real-time weather. Not season averages. Not spreadsheets. The full picture.

Gradient-Boosted Machine Learning

LightGBM models trained on years of pitch-level data capture non-linear relationships that traditional regression can't see. Batter-pitcher matchups, count leverage and patterns invisible to the human eye.

Monte Carlo Probability Distributions

Every game is simulated thousands of times to produce full probability distributions, not point estimates. You get the spread of outcomes, tail risks, and confidence intervals across moneylines, totals, F5 innings, and player props.

2025 Results

Results across all markets.

Tested against the full 2025 MLB season.

* Past performance ≠ future results. For informational and educational purposes only.

Preview Users

From those who've seen it.

A small group of bettors and analysts tested Obsidic during the 2025 season.

Opening Day 2026.
Don't start behind.

Founding members get first access to the full projection suite.